The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved Nigeria’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for 2026–2028, outlining the country’s fiscal direction and macroeconomic assumptions for the next three years.
The approval was issued after Wednesday’s council meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja.
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Speaking to journalists, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, said the Federal Government is projecting N34.33 trillion in total revenue for 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises.
Bagudu noted that the revised projection is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, with federal allocations expected to decline by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% drop compared to the 2025 budget. Statutory transfers for the period are estimated at N3 trillion.
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Macroeconomic assumptions
For the framework, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd), though a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will guide the 2026 budget.
An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,512/$ were also approved.
Bagudu explained that the exchange-rate assumption reflects the country’s fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections, adding that the parameters were based on analyses from the Budget Office and other relevant agencies.
He said the council also reviewed ministry-level inputs before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets spending limits for government institutions.
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Context and additional updates
The approval comes days after the Senate endorsed the Federal Government’s $21.5 billion external borrowing plan, which forms part of the 2025–2027 MTEF/FSP.
During his 2024 budget presentation, President Tinubu projected that inflation would fall from 34.6% to 15% in 2025, while the exchange rate was expected to improve from around ₦1,700/$ to ₦1,500/$.
In a recent outlook, Standard Bank projected the naira could close at ₦1,458.8/$ by the end of 2025.
The newly approved MTEF will guide the preparation of the 2026 budget and shape Nigeria’s fiscal strategy over the medium term.
