Nigeria’s Current Business Performance Index reached a record 117.8 points in September 2026, surpassing the previous all-time high of 117.2 points recorded in February, according to the latest Business Confidence Monitor published by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group. The record reading, up from 112.7 points in August and 107.9 points in September 2025, reflects broad-based expansion across trade, agriculture, and non-manufacturing sectors, driven by a combination of back-to-school shopping, pre-election stockpiling, and growing anticipation of year-end festive demand.
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What drove the September surge
The trade sector posted the strongest monthly performance, with its Current Business Performance Index jumping to 128.5 points from 112.0 in August, supported by robust wholesale and retail activity. NESG attributed the surge partly to stockpiling driven by back-to-school shopping and partly to businesses building inventory ahead of election-related spending that is expected to lift consumer demand in the approach to Nigeria’s 2027 electoral cycle.
Agriculture also posted a strong reading of 117.7 points, up from 110.5 in August and 107.3 in September 2025, reflecting seasonal harvest activity and improved supply chain conditions. Services improved to 117.8 points, though the financial results sub-index within that category entered contraction after several months of expansion, a signal that the demand improvement is not yet fully translating into improved profitability across the sector.
The Future Business Expectations Index confirmed the positive near-term outlook. Trade recorded the highest expectation reading at 192.0 points, followed by manufacturing at 151.9 points, non-manufacturing at 148.1 points, agriculture at 134.8 points, and services at 123.2 points.
A business confidence index at its highest level in recent recorded history, simultaneously with the country’s largest fintech filing for a Wall Street IPO, a World Bank growth upgrade, and a 62 per cent stock market return, is not coincidence. It is the commercial economy responding to macroeconomic conditions that are, for the first time in years, genuinely improving.
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The costs that remain
The record headline index sits alongside a Cost of Doing Business Index of 39.2 points and a Prices sub-index of 58.0 points, both well below the 100-point neutral threshold, confirming that the demand improvement is not yet accompanied by a resolution of the structural cost pressures that have squeezed business margins throughout 2026.
NESG identified limited access to finance, irregular electricity supply, high rental costs, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure as the persistent constraints that continue to temper business sentiment despite the improvement in demand conditions. Manufacturing, despite recording a positive current index, faces elevated production costs from high energy spending and expensive credit.
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What the outlook means for SMEs
For small businesses, the September reading offers two simultaneous messages. The demand environment is the best it has been in more than a year, with consumers spending on school supplies, traders stocking up, and election-related activity beginning to flow through local economies. That is genuinely good news for businesses whose survival depends on transaction volume.
But strong demand in a high-cost environment does not automatically produce strong margins. A market trader moving more units at higher energy and logistics costs may be busier without being more profitable. The record Business Performance Index describes the top line. The cost indices describe the pressure on everything below it.
NESG’s expectation data suggests businesses anticipate the demand improvement will continue through the festive season and into the early weeks of the 2027 election campaign. Whether that demand translates into sustained growth beyond the seasonal cycle will depend on whether the structural constraints the Monitor identifies are meaningfully addressed in the same period.
