…AEC highlights Africa’s energy shift
The African Energy Chamber (AEC) hosted its Invest in African Energies investor breakfast in Geneva on Friday. The event brought together European investors, financiers, and commodity traders, reinforcing Geneva’s role as a global commodity trading hub.
Industry experts from S&P Global Commodity Insights led discussions on Africa’s evolving energy landscape, focusing on commodity trading, downstream activities, and crude oil trading in West Africa.
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Nigeria’s refinery expansions reshape fuel trade
With the Dangote refinery increasing production in 2025, Nigeria is set to become a net exporter of gasoline for the first time. The refinery’s output is reducing Nigeria’s reliance on European fuel imports while supplying jet fuel to Saudi Aramco and naphtha to Asian markets and the Lomé hub off Togo’s coast.
According to Matthew Tracey-Cook, Senior Price Reporter at S&P Global, Nigeria is witnessing further refinery developments. These include the approval of a new 10,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Delta State, the resumption of operations at the Warri refinery, and the planned restart of the Port Harcourt refinery. Discussions are also underway for the construction of a private refinery.
“In this context, Africa is becoming a very interesting market and a battleground for different regions targeting it as an export market,” said Tanya Stepanova, Associate Director, Commodity Insights at S&P Global. Middle Eastern national oil companies (NOCs) are expanding their presence by acquiring retail and refining assets.
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South Africa faces decisions on fuel supply
As the largest and most mature market in sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa’s fuel sector is experiencing slow growth. The country is facing refinery closures and must decide between a trader-dominated market or Middle Eastern investments in its downstream sector. Reports indicate that Middle Eastern NOCs are considering acquiring Shell South Africa’s downstream assets.
“In the long term, South Africa has ambitions to revive its refining industry. For South Africa, it’s not just a matter of refining economics — there is a strong agenda for security of supply,” said Stepanova. “The question becomes: will it become a trader-dominated market, or will we see Middle Eastern influence? This is one of the issues to watch in 2025.”
Africa’s LNG prospects in a competitive global market
New LNG supplies from the United States are targeting European markets, creating competition for African producers. Mozambique is a key player, with ExxonMobil expected to reach a Final Investment Decision (FID) on its Rovuma LNG project by 2026. Developments in TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project could see investments exceeding $10 billion.
“For LNG, the demand is certainly there, but these projects need long-term commitments, particularly from offtakers, to happen. When we look at Mozambique, ExxonMobil just said that it’s a key part of their global portfolio and they are looking at FID in 2026,” said Verner Ayukegba, Senior Vice President at AEC. “The only way to drive development in Africa is through trade and investment.”
Shifts in upstream financing
The investor breakfast also addressed changes in upstream financing. Many international banks have exited fossil fuel financing, but major players with strong balance sheets continue to lead new exploration projects. Commodity traders are also becoming key financial players in maintaining production levels.
“When it comes to infill drilling, sometimes the traders come in and are able to finance off the back of an existing resource base. Traders have become bigger financial players, especially when you are looking to keep production at the same level. This is what we see likely to happen in the next two to four years,” said Ayukegba.
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Looking ahead to African Energy Week 2025
The Geneva event serves as a precursor to the African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies conference, scheduled for September 29 to October 3 in Cape Town, South Africa. AEW 2025 aims to position Africa as a global energy leader, focusing on strategic investments and partnerships to drive growth in the sector.
Building on previous successes, AEW continues to be a premier platform for deal-making and investment in Africa’s energy sector.
