Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, a 340.88 per cent increase from the N1.71 trillion posted in Q4 2025, according to the Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Total trade stood at N34.79 trillion during the period, with exports accounting for N21.17 trillion — 60.85 per cent of the total — while imports fell to N13.62 trillion, their lowest level in several quarters.
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What drove the improvement
The surge in the trade surplus was driven by two simultaneous forces: rising export receipts from crude oil and a sharp decline in petroleum product imports, the latter reflecting the increasing contribution of the Dangote Refinery to domestic fuel supply. Crude oil generated N11.20 trillion in export earnings, representing 52.9 per cent of total exports, while non-oil exports contributed N3.19 trillion, accounting for 15.05 per cent of the total.
Non-oil export performance was mixed but showed areas of genuine growth. Manufactured goods exports rose to N302.64 billion, a 2.79 per cent increase year-on-year, while solid mineral exports jumped 74.63 per cent to N102.80 billion. Agricultural exports, however, declined 31.20 per cent to N1.17 trillion, a reading that points to persistent challenges in that segment even as other categories improve.
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Nigeria’s top five export destinations were India, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United States, which together absorbed 44.84 per cent of total exports. China remained the largest source of imports, with machinery and transport equipment accounting for the biggest import category at N5.01 trillion.
A trade surplus of N7.55 trillion is the kind of external sector performance that improves foreign exchange reserves, supports the naira, and reduces the pressure on businesses that depend on imported inputs. But the agricultural decline is a signal that the sector driving most of Nigeria’s rural SME activity is not yet participating in the broader export recovery.
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What it means for businesses
The sharp decline in imports carries a direct implication for Nigerian manufacturers and SMEs. Total imports fell 18.17 per cent year-on-year and 21.05 per cent from Q4 2025 — a reduction that reflects both improved domestic production capacity and tighter foreign exchange management. For businesses that previously competed with cheap imports, that shift creates more space in the domestic market.
For SMEs involved in non-oil export sectors — processed foods, manufactured goods, solid minerals, and creative products — the data reinforces that export-oriented growth is achievable. The African Quality Mark certification recently awarded to 131 Nigerian companies across 220 products is one of the structural tools designed to help small businesses take advantage of exactly this kind of external sector momentum.
The trade numbers are improving. The next question is whether the businesses that are not crude oil producers can build on that platform fast enough to diversify Nigeria’s export base before the next commodity cycle turns.
