S&P Global Ratings has raised Nigeria’s long-term sovereign credit rating from B- to B, maintaining a Stable Outlook, in a move that marks the country’s first upgrade from the agency in 14 years. The decision, announced on 15 May 2026, follows similar positive rating actions by Fitch Ratings and Moody’s in 2025 and adds to a growing body of international institutional confidence in Nigeria’s economic reform direction.
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What drove the upgrade
S&P cited three years of sustained structural reforms as the primary driver. The liberalisation of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market in 2023, which ended years of multiple currency windows and artificial rate management, was described as a key factor in improving investor confidence and access to foreign currency. The removal of fuel subsidies, rising crude oil production now averaging 1.65 million barrels per day, and the ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery to near its 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity were also highlighted as supporting factors that have strengthened Nigeria’s current account and fiscal position.
S&P projects Nigeria’s debt-to-revenue ratio will decline to 338 per cent in 2026 from approximately 500 per cent in 2023, a meaningful improvement that reflects the cumulative effect of the government’s fiscal adjustments over the past three years.
A 14-year gap between upgrades from a major global ratings agency is not just a data point — it reflects how deeply Nigeria’s credibility had eroded and how significant the reversal now underway actually is.
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What it means for investment and business
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele described the upgrade as further evidence that Nigeria’s economic policy direction is beginning to restore international confidence, noting it follows Fitch and Moody’s positive actions in 2025. The combined effect of upgrades from all three major global ratings agencies positions Nigeria more favourably with institutional investors, development finance institutions, and international lenders that use sovereign credit ratings to calibrate their exposure to emerging market economies.
For Nigerian businesses seeking foreign partnerships, export financing, or international capital, a stronger sovereign credit profile reduces the risk premium attached to operating in the country and can translate into more accessible and affordable terms from international counterparties.
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The caution that comes with it
S&P maintained important caveats. Nigeria remains five notches below investment grade, and the agency warned that rising fuel prices linked to global oil market pressures and the Middle East conflict are contributing to inflationary pressures. S&P projects inflation to average 17.7 per cent in 2026 before declining to below 10 per cent by 2028.
The upgrade is a floor, not a ceiling. S&P has signalled it could raise the rating again within 12 to 24 months if fiscal outcomes improve further — giving the government a clear and time-bound incentive to maintain reform momentum.
